Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75dd…299d crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$141 (-17%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 29% -39.7%
≤30d 17 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 29% -39.7%
≤90d 17 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 29% -39.7%
all 17 -17.5% -25.4% 35% 29% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 29% -39.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 24% -45.5%
15% -39.0% 24% -50.8%
20% -45.0% 24% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$50 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $137 −$101 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$168 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$44 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 13¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 45¢ $137 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records