Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75d8…2e25 crypto 394 markets active 3h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$576 (-5%) realized −$545 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%144W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$266
other 20% +$791
world 13% −$1,296
sports 12% +$56
weather 0% −$9
culture 0% −$11
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -4.9% -13.9% 35% 34% -10.0%
≤30d 144 -8.7% -17.4% 35% 34% -18.9%
≤90d 328 -23.2% -30.5% 30% 30% -32.6%
all 388 +3.8% -6.1% 37% 37% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 37% -15.5%
10% -15.1% 35% -23.6%
15% -23.3% 35% -30.9%
20% -30.8% 35% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$28 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$545
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses144 / 244
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)388 / 394
History coverage116d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 6¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$46 +91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 −$13 -88%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$27 -88%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$23 +223%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$16 +102%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 +$7 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$33 +162%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$39 +126%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$20 -48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +92%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$1 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$59 +289%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Frenkie de Jong: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$24 +231%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$15 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$39 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $97 24h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $46 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $51 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 7¢ $2 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $4 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $33 42h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $51 42h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $20 42h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 42h
Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $5 43h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $31 43h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $15 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 43h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.30 · official $129.30 (match) · 1677 history records