Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
75 0x75d6…5e9b sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-8%) realized −$16 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -25.5% -32.6% 43% 43% -21.3%
≤30d 7 -25.5% -32.6% 43% 43% -21.3%
≤90d 7 -25.5% -32.6% 43% 43% -21.3%
all 7 -25.5% -32.6% 43% 43% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 43% -21.3%
10% -39.1% 43% -28.8%
15% -45.0% 43% -35.7%
20% -50.4% 43% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 61¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 50¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
France vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $20 +$12 +60%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $28 +$18 +65%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 +$9 +97%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $29 1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $10 16h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 16h
France vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 17h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 17h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 20h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $5 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $20 40h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $20 47h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $28 47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 47h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 16¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.70 · official $69.70 (match) · 15 history records