Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
75 0x75d6…c862 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$3
other 19% $0
politics 13% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 0% -9.2%
all 42 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage302d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $43 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $37 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $79 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $39 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 12 $6 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $2 $0 -15%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $4 $0 -6%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $2 $0 -6%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $30 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $13 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $19 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $19 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $47 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $48 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 158 history records