Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x75d4…4027 other 130 markets active 17d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39,191 (+12%) realized +$39,750 · open −$559
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate79%100W / 27L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$2,476per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$11,514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$39,639
culture 28% +$1,968
sports 3% +$348
world 3% −$3,229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 24 +3.8% -6.1% 88% 46% +1.9%
≤90d 74 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 36% -1.8%
all 127 +3.4% -6.4% 79% 45% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 45% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 25% -7.7%
15% -23.6% 15% -16.6%
20% -31.0% 7% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,805) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$583 vs −$706 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$11,514
Realized+$39,750
Unrealized−$559
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses100 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)127 / 130
History coverage147d
Avg bet$2,476
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $7,765 $8,032 +$268 (+3%)
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? Yes 86¢ 72¢ $2,491 $2,110 −$381 (-15%)
Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? Yes 85¢ 64¢ $1,817 $1,372 −$445 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $377 +$149 +40%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $654 +$20 +3%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this Jun 02 $2,298 −$434 -19%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $4,423 +$581 +13%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $12,761 +$3,555 +28%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $1,183 −$466 -39%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 02 $445 +$23 +5%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $2,848 +$164 +6%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $2,007 +$408 +20%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $1,185 +$103 +9%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 30 $191 −$188 -99%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $316 +$47 +15%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 27 $323 +$53 +16%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $417 +$21 +5%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 27 $601 +$54 +9%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 27 $635 +$39 +6%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $693 +$39 +6%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $712 +$53 +7%
Will "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 27 $927 +$100 +11%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $1,022 +$115 +11%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 27 $1,412 +$38 +3%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 27 $1,722 +$191 +11%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $2,246 +$304 +14%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 27 $2,501 +$308 +12%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week May 21 $208 +$39 +19%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week May 21 $1,095 −$762 -70%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee May 21 $1,077 +$70 +6%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this wee May 21 $1,642 +$87 +5%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 21 $1,481 +$286 +19%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this May 21 $3,315 +$481 +14%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this we May 21 $4,972 +$461 +9%
Will "The Roast of Kevin Hart" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 13 $584 +$18 +3%
Will "Apex" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 13 $724 +$60 +8%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 13 $1,673 +$136 +8%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this w May 13 $4,219 −$1,450 -34%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee May 13 $2,125 +$215 +10%
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 13 $2,805 +$109 +4%
Will "Apex" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 13 $2,886 +$197 +7%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 13 $3,637 +$214 +6%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 13 $123 +$4 +3%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this w May 08 $141 +$280 +199%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 May 08 $979 +$217 +22%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 08 $1,181 +$254 +22%
Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 08 $1,412 +$66 +5%
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 08 $1,982 +$103 +5%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 08 $4,863 +$1,858 +38%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 08 $19,028 +$2,104 +11%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this May 03 $26 −$25 -97%
Will "Unchosen" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 02 $367 −$276 -75%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 01 $293 −$285 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $943 17d
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 19d
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? BUY Yes 89¢ $69 19d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $739 21d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 40¢ $160 21d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? SELL Yes 24¢ $317 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $242 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $446 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $29 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 22d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 22d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 23d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 23d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 23d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 23d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 23d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,514.48 · official $11,514.48 (match) · 2505 history records