Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75d1…8b5c crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$120 (-12%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 29% -22.1%
≤30d 7 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 29% -22.1%
≤90d 7 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 29% -22.1%
all 7 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 29% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 29% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 29% -29.6%
15% -29.5% 29% -36.4%
20% -36.4% 14% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$76 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$65 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $287 −$118 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $234 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $128 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $132 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$25 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $86 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $32 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $106 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $112 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $120 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $100 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records