Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

75 0x75d0…d84f crypto 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 152d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$83 (+0%) realized +$83 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR6%break-even

Win rate88%15W / 2L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$2,844per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +6%

net ROI/market (all)-8.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	8	+1.7%	-8.0%	100%	12%	-4.3%
all	17	+0.8%	-8.8%	88%	6%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.8%	6%	-9.4%
10% ← realistic here	-17.5%	0%	-18.0%
15%	-25.5%	0%	-26.0%
20%	-32.8%	0%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

93% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$0 · ×2011.23 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×15084.24 per $1 lost it wins $15084.24

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage

Net worth$85

Realized+$83

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses15 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage152d

Avg bet$2,844

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$85	$85	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	Jun 07	$21	$0	+0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May?	Jun 07	$26	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	Jun 07	$34	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	Jun 07	$117	$0	+0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	May 06	$41	$0	+0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	May 06	$42	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	May 06	$116	$0	+0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Apr 06	$324	+$41	+13%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	Mar 11	$38,079	+$29	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7?	Mar 08	$1,100	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7?	Mar 08	$10,532	+$11	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?	Feb 26	$115	$0	-0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11?	Feb 11	$115	$0	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6?	Feb 08	$115	$0	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4	Feb 05	$115	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?	Feb 03	$115	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?	Jan 25	$95	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$85	25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$13	29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$20	34d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$21	38d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$26	43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$117	44d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$21	58d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$22	63d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$61	64d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$41	69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$55	71d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY No	83¢	$166	91d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	SELL No	94¢	$166	95d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY No	90¢	$159	99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$5,655	104d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$27,137	104d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$20	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$11	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$2	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$2	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$2,982	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$4,473	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$4,970	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$3,993	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$86	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$86	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$50	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$413	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$27	107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$267	107d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.13 · official $85.13 (match) · 83 history records