Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
75 0x75ce…0fbc sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%69W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$170
14 days+$132
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$47
other 7% +$98
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +48.6% +34.5% 57% 57% +22.3%
≤30d 153 +15.9% +4.9% 45% 44% -6.8%
≤90d 153 +15.9% +4.9% 45% 44% -6.8%
all 153 +15.9% +4.9% 45% 44% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 44% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 40% -15.7%
15% -14.3% 38% -23.9%
20% -22.7% 36% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses69 / 84
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage20d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austri Jun 17 $8 +$65 +794%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$10 +118%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 16 $9 −$1 -14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$13 +82%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -77%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$13 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$20 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $18 +$21 +115%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $29 +$19 +63%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +71%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 12 $7 +$6 +82%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $7 +$5 +76%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $7 +$6 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $9 +$5 +59%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $18 −$9 -49%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +99%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $3 +$24 +786%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 46m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $8 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 4h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $10 14h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) SELL Leviatán Esports 81¢ $15 15h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $10 18h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austri BUY 11¢ $8 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira SELL $8 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY $9 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 28h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 80¢ $14 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 26¢ $10 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND SELL 19¢ $5 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 20¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.56 · official $5.56 (match) · 462 history records