Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75ce…ffd8 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$191 (-1%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 63L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$315
7 days−$315
14 days−$315
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$151
finance 21% −$25
world 19% −$52
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$315
sports 3% −$2
tech 2% −$24
weather 2% +$4
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -57.5% -61.6% 25% 0% -55.2%
≤30d 4 -57.5% -61.6% 25% 0% -55.2%
≤90d 66 -8.4% -17.2% 5% 0% -12.1%
all 66 -8.4% -17.2% 5% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -12.1%
10% -25.1% 0% -20.5%
15% -32.3% 0% -28.2%
20% -39.0% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$21 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage52d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $314 −$109 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $81 −$3 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 03 $842 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $1,503 −$25 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $1,803 −$40 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $2,021 −$17 -1%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 03 $50 −$1 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 03 $400 −$7 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 03 $600 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 03 $600 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1? May 03 $422 −$4 -1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1? May 03 $1,566 −$11 -1%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 1? May 03 $136 −$21 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1? May 03 $1,045 −$12 -1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $148 in May? May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? May 03 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May? May 03 $50 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 03 $1,075 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $200 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $794 −$6 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma May 03 $200 $0 +0%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 1? May 03 $238 +$10 +4%
Will there be a reverse sweep in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 gran May 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 pla May 03 $450 −$2 -0%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 03 $651 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 03 $1,026 −$16 -2%
Will a player finish a BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 play-offs map with May 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will the winning team not lose a single map throughout BLAST Rivals Fo May 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bhavitha Mandava be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 2? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $67 $0 +0%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $322 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1? May 01 $84 +$4 +4%
Will Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings? May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026? May 01 $5 $0 -7%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $180 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL No 17¢ $0 47d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 47d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 47d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $0 47d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $12 47d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $48 47d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL No 17¢ $24 47d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 47d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 47d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 47d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 47d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 48d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 48d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $38 48d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $36 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 16¢ $17 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 16¢ $15 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY No 15¢ $10 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL No 14¢ $15 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 560 history records