Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75cc…6b15 weather 524 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$176 (-1%) realized −$166 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%199W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$224
7 days−$690
14 days−$582
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$353
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -8.0% -16.8% 21% 12% -18.6%
≤30d 390 -4.6% -13.7% 35% 31% -12.2%
≤90d 521 -2.3% -11.6% 38% 36% -11.6%
all 521 -2.3% -11.6% 38% 36% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 36% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 35% -20.1%
15% -27.8% 34% -27.8%
20% -34.9% 32% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$166
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses199 / 322
Open positions2
Markets (closed)521 / 524
History coverage59d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? No 39¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 25 $170 −$21 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $35 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $61 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $22 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $62 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $150 −$13 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $152 −$8 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? Jun 24 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $162 −$14 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $169 −$15 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $100 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $92 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $148 −$13 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? Jun 23 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $44 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $59 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $79 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 23 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $60 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 23 $54 −$24 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$9 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $51 −$31 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $15 −$4 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $102 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? SELL Yes 39¢ $89 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 39¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 23m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 23m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 23m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 54¢ $4 28m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 39m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 40m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 40m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 55¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 58¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 58¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 57¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 57¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 57¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? SELL No 48¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 50¢ $61 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 55¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.71 (match) · 1621 history records