Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x75cc…aee7
world · 65 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$19 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage480d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump visit China by April 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $15 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $141 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $76 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $73 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $15 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $72 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $36 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $22 −$2 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $34 $0 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $60 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $74 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% −$5
other 23% −$4
politics 20% $0
sports 11% −$13
economics 7% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $22 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $13 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $13 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $24 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $35 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $35 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $14 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $14 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $32 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $32 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.9% -12.1% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 24 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 63 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 2% -9.8%
all 64 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -10.2%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.82 · official $21.71 · 236 history records