trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -10.4% | -19.0% | 50% | 50% | +8.5% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -10.4% | -19.0% | 50% | 50% | +8.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -10.4% | -19.0% | 50% | 50% | +8.5% |
| all | 8 | -13.6% | -21.8% | 38% | 38% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -21.8% | 38% | -11.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -29.3% | 38% | -20.1% |
| 15% | -36.1% | 38% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -42.4% | 25% | -34.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 68¢ | 28¢ | $9,245 | $3,881 | −$5,365 (-58%) |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Germany | 11¢ | 1¢ | $500 | $51 | −$449 (-90%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $19 | $20 | +$1 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Germany (-2.5) | Jun 20 | $1,534 | −$1,169 | -76% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $1,519 | +$1,062 | +70% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $2,368 | −$2,326 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $7,870 | +$5,078 | +64% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Feb 09 | $3,000 | +$1,348 | +45% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 21 | $17,700 | −$1,533 | -9% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 20 | $10,000 | −$324 | -3% |
| Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? | Jan 18 | $3,238 | −$3,238 | -100% |