Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75ca…719f world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 31 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage475d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $11 −$1 -5%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $13 −$1 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 23 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 22 $1 $0 -13%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 24 $14 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $38 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records