Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75c6…86b4 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64 (+2%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$176
sports 38% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.9% -15.7% 38% 23% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -6.9% -15.7% 38% 23% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -6.9% -15.7% 38% 23% -9.6%
all 26 -6.9% -15.7% 38% 23% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 23% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 12% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 8% -26.2%
20% -37.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $101 −$5 -5%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $903 +$124 +14%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $101 +$9 +9%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $188 +$1 +1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $102 −$5 -5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 +$4 +4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$1 -1%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $167 −$161 -96%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $105 −$17 -16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$12 -60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $154 +$34 +22%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 −$30 -7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $97 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway $10 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $903 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 70¢ $208 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 16¢ $109 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 5h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $190 6h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $7 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 15¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $97 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $97 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $107 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $101 28h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 28h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $163 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $35 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $30 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 71¢ $101 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 70¢ $101 29h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.00 · 59 history records