Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75c2…e8c7 sports 344 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,929 (-1%) realized −$1,950 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%249W / 90L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$2,594
world 24% +$175
sports 17% −$174
other 15% +$209
politics 3% +$94
economics 2% +$21
culture 1% +$51
finance 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.6% -25.4% 50% 29% -11.0%
≤30d 35 -25.4% -32.5% 57% 17% -14.4%
≤90d 88 -5.8% -14.7% 67% 19% -11.6%
all 339 -4.6% -13.7% 73% 18% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 18% -10.5%
10% -21.9% 10% -19.1%
15% -29.5% 7% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$92 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$1,950
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses249 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)339 / 344
History coverage247d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 25? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $12 +$8 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $37 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $13 −$7 -51%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 21 $11 −$9 -77%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -74%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +185%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $809 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $799 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $1,106 +$99 +9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $681 +$19 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $705 −$5 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $699 +$1 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 04 $653 +$47 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$1 +17%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $920 −$920 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $440 +$60 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $1,499 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,503 +$5 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 27 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 25 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $1,498 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,500 +$5 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 23 $1,500 +$2 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $252 +$42 +17%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 20 $2 $0 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,459 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $1,399 +$1 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 18 $1,449 +$1 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 17 $1,459 +$1 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 12h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $32 13h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 13h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $25 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 15h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $33 16h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $43 16h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 26h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $14 26h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 26h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $67 37h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 44h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $1 44h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $9 46h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 46h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 46h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.03 · official $151.93 (match) · 1688 history records