Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75c2…94c0 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$620 (-14%) realized −$626 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$860
14 days−$860
30 days−$860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$152
tech 22% −$198
world 22% +$211
sports 11% −$16
politics 10% −$143
finance 7% −$198
crypto 3% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -24.8% -31.9% 38% 33% -48.9%
≤30d 21 -24.8% -31.9% 38% 33% -48.9%
≤90d 21 -24.8% -31.9% 38% 33% -48.9%
all 37 -13.1% -21.4% 49% 46% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 46% -24.4%
10% -28.9% 35% -31.7%
15% -35.8% 24% -38.3%
20% -42.1% 19% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$72 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized−$626
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)37 / 46
History coverage160d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-09 House seat? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $74 $83 +$9 (+12%)
England to score first vs. Ghana? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $83 $81 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 49¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: England (-3.5) England 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party win the WA-09 House seat? No 82¢ 94¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$18 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $52 +$48 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $74 +$26 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 +$24 +105%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $28 +$22 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 2? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Jun 18 $30 +$74 +247%
Will Italy join the Board of Peace? Jun 18 $188 +$37 +20%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 18 $261 −$155 -59%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 18 $79 −$77 -98%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Jun 18 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 18 $134 −$134 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 18 $80 −$9 -11%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 18 $260 −$127 -49%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Mar 01 $69 +$41 +59%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $106 +$124 +117%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 27 $154 −$134 -87%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? Feb 12 $34 +$12 +34%
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 100 and 110 seconds? Feb 09 $20 +$14 +70%
Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31? Feb 01 $160 +$38 +24%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $370 +$130 +35%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 30 $176 −$32 -18%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 28 $140 −$18 -13%
Will PNC Financial Services (PNC) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 27 $51 +$23 +46%
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on January 21? Jan 22 $186 +$38 +20%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $263 +$37 +14%
Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-01-14? Jan 15 $75 +$25 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $58 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $16 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 1h
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 21¢ $21 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $41 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $64 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 5d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $152 5d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $32 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $74 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $52 5d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 82¢ $45 111d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 81¢ $55 111d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M BUY Yes 29¢ $30 113d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 2? BUY No 93¢ $7 113d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? BUY Down 68¢ $200 113d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 115d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY No 51¢ $45 130d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? SELL Up 100¢ $45 130d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? BUY Up 75¢ $34 131d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? BUY No 6¢ $2 134d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Patriots 1¢ $2 134d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 33¢ $79 134d
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 100 and 110 seconds? BUY No 59¢ $20 134d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? BUY No 61¢ $178 136d
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? BUY No 60¢ $13 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.86 · official $554.87 (match) · 225 history records