Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75c1…d291 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1
world 25% −$9
politics 12% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 4% +$1
tech 2% −$2
economics 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.5% -19.9% 20% 0% -18.8%
≤30d 7 -8.9% -17.5% 14% 0% -15.2%
≤90d 8 -7.8% -16.5% 12% 0% -13.7%
all 61 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 2% -10.9%
10% -22.4% 2% -19.4%
15% -29.9% 0% -27.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage467d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $8 $0 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $14 −$7 -53%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $26 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $44 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -46%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -74%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -46%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 30 $8 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 30 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $16 −$1 -3%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m May 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 24 $12 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $33 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $8 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $8 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes $2 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes $4 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $13 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $13 46h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $24 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $26 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $40 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $3 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $44 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 31d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes $1 363d
Will Amazon buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 364d
Will Amazon buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 364d
Will Amazon buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 364d
Will Amazon buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 364d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 369d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $9 383d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.86 · official $35.86 (match) · 184 history records