Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x75bf…883c
sports · 48 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$41 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)34 / 48
History coverage66d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 14 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Ursa 45¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner illwill 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 53¢ 53¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Walczaki 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner T1 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Monte 56¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner K27 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Alliance 61¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 10? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Festina Lente 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18? No 93¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 MIBR 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 18? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ap Apr 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 15 Apr 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 15 Apr 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Apr 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 09 $70 −$25 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 38% −$8
crypto 38% −$26
sports 23% −$7
other 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $1 7m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 48¢ $1 27m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $1 41m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $1 44m
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 65¢ $1 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $1 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Monte 56¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 53¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 43¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 53¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Festina Lente 53¢ $1 7h
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) BUY Alliance 61¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 45¢ $1 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 32h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 33h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -32.8% -39.2% 35% 35% -29.0%
≤30d 24 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 33% -28.3%
≤90d 34 -31.3% -37.8% 44% 24% -30.9%
all 34 -31.3% -37.8% 44% 24% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 24% -30.9%
10% -43.8% 24% -37.5%
15% -49.2% 24% -43.5%
20% -54.2% 21% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.84 · official $13.84 (match) · 76 history records