Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75be…22ed world 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% $0
other 37% +$3
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 38% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 0% -9.2%
all 25 -1.9% -11.3% 36% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage464d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $79 +$2 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $12 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $78 +$2 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $41 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $63 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $9 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -45%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $40 10m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $37 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $41 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $42 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $39 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $33 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $31 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $38 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $38 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records