Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75bb…ad0e sports 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%27W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$9
politics 21% −$2
other 18% −$2
economics 10% $0
crypto 7% −$1
world 6% −$4
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -3.8% -12.9% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 3 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -11.9%
all 202 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses27 / 175
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)202 / 203
History coverage173d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $56 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $206 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 25 $165 −$2 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 25 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 25 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $127 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 22? Feb 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $114 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 22 $46 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 22 $89 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $168 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $42 11d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $42 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $42 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $43 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $44 37d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $48 107d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $48 108d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 93¢ $46 109d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 93¢ $46 109d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $35 110d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $35 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 110d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $41 115d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $41 115d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 115d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $37 115d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $44 115d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $44 115d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $39 115d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $39 115d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 115d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 115d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $38 115d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 94¢ $39 115d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $35 115d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $35 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $48 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.53 · official $38.53 (match) · 801 history records