Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:43:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75b6…8d68 sports 424 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate81%340W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$7
14 days+$16
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$109
sports 14% −$100
other 5% −$24
economics 1% $0
finance 1% +$8
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.4% -10.8% 96% 9% -9.9%
≤30d 47 -1.4% -10.8% 96% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 360 -0.9% -10.4% 80% 39% -10.0%
all 420 -1.1% -10.5% 81% 36% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 36% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 28% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 19% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses340 / 80
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)420 / 424
History coverage112d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $181 +$22 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 19 $9 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $73 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $75 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $99 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $30 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $20 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $181 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $10 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $74 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $99 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $99 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $47 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.91 · official $293.91 (match) · 921 history records