Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x75b4…5b22 crypto 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%142W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$8
weather 8% +$10
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 63 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 3% -8.9%
all 143 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×11.58 per $1 lost it wins $11.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses142 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage194d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 8? May 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 4? May 04 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 3? May 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2? May 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 28 Apr 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26? Apr 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23? Apr 24 $26 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Apr 23 $22 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 21? Apr 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $37 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $37 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $37 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $37 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $36 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $36 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $36 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $36 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $36 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $36 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $36 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $36 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $36 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $36 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $34 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $34 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 45d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $34 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.02 · official $37.02 (match) · 289 history records