Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75b4…c3d6 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$3
other 29% +$12
crypto 12% $0
politics 10% $0
tech 6% +$4
sports 6% +$1
culture 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 24% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 24% 0% -10.1%
all 45 +2.8% -7.0% 31% 9% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 9% -8.3%
10% -15.9% 4% -17.1%
15% -24.0% 4% -25.1%
20% -31.5% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.89 per $1 lost it wins $4.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage271d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $14 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $21 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Feb 02 $40 +$4 +11%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 21 $36 $0 +1%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 20 $29 +$11 +38%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $29 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year Oct 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21? Oct 27 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA? Oct 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 25 $3 $0 +17%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $7 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $20 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $1 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $28 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $21 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.67 · official $30.67 (match) · 159 history records