Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x75b2…3ec7 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$362 (-5%) realized −$362 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$44
14 days+$56
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$59
other 44% −$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.0% -15.9% 50% 50% -24.5%
≤30d 18 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 39% -12.7%
≤90d 30 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 27% -15.3%
all 30 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 27% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 27% -15.3%
10% -23.4% 10% -23.5%
15% -30.8% 3% -30.8%
20% -37.6% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$49 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage79d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$30 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $169 −$74 -44%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $232 +$13 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $172 −$21 -12%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $82 +$14 +17%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $442 −$79 -18%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $246 +$53 +22%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $121 −$12 -10%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $309 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $313 +$132 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $764 −$176 -23%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 0.5 May 29 $208 −$126 -61%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $239 −$26 -11%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $342 −$48 -14%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $339 +$45 +13%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $374 −$35 -9%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 0.5 May 23 $293 +$55 +19%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $286 +$80 +28%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 02 $171 −$59 -35%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 May 02 $90 +$6 +7%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 May 02 $150 +$8 +5%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $226 −$73 -32%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $555 −$54 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Apr 01 $134 −$32 -24%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $88 −$5 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $59 −$7 -12%
Sweden vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $49 +$6 +13%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $61 −$25 -41%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $81 −$8 -9%
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Mar 30 $76 −$18 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $129 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $90 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 46¢ $95 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $169 24h
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 62¢ $245 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 56¢ $67 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 27¢ $96 10d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 22¢ $82 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 69¢ $83 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 70¢ $172 10d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $232 10d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $93 10d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $235 10d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $18 10d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $17 10d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $442 10d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 10d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $181 10d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $66 10d
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 73¢ $109 10d
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $121 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $15 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $100 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $193 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $105 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $186 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $18 10d
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $445 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records