Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75b0…e7b7 weather 727 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$614 (+4%) realized +$620 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%349W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day149.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$94
14 days+$59
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$9
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +2.7% -7.0% 56% 34% -7.9%
≤30d 692 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 30% -9.6%
≤90d 692 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 30% -9.6%
all 692 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 30% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover149.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 30% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 21% -18.3%
15% -21.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -29.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$790
Realized+$620
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses349 / 343
Open positions35
Markets (closed)692 / 727
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day149.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 79¢ 82¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? No 81¢ 97¢ $32 $39 +$6 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 81¢ 94¢ $32 $38 +$5 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? No 81¢ 92¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 76¢ 84¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? No 80¢ 81¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? No 79¢ 80¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? No 78¢ 78¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? No 78¢ 78¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? No 81¢ 76¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 81¢ 74¢ $32 $30 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 78¢ 74¢ $31 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 81¢ 72¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? No 81¢ 72¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 70¢ 78¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? No 79¢ 85¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 71¢ 69¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? No 78¢ 68¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? No 81¢ 68¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? No 67¢ 64¢ $27 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 68¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? No 78¢ 71¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-9%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? No 81¢ 76¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 81¢ 98¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$10 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 16 $12 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$13 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 15 $30 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $32 −$7 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $29 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $32 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 15 $28 −$5 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $32 −$8 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 15 $32 −$25 -78%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$7 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $32 −$10 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $32 −$7 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 86¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 86¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $31 10m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL No 62¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $35 17m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 86¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $40 40m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $40 40m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $14 41m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $37 41m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 87¢ $17 43m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 78¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 79¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 50¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.19 · official $789.40 (match) · 3500 history records