Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75b0…0c9b sports 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$51 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate76%64W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day100.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$155
other 11% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 75% -9.5%
≤30d 84 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 75% -9.5%
≤90d 84 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 75% -9.5%
all 84 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 75% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 75% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 50% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 23% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$48 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses64 / 20
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day100.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 83¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Under 85¢ 82¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? No 78¢ 74¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 +$11 +23%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $50 +$18 +35%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $50 +$12 +24%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $50 +$20 +40%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $50 +$15 +31%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $50 +$30 +59%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $50 +$9 +17%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 +$16 +32%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 +$13 +26%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$27 +53%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$30 +59%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 26 $50 +$8 +16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $50 +$11 +23%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 +$9 +17%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $50 +$17 +34%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 +$22 +44%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $50 +$14 +29%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 +$10 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $50 +$16 +31%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 26 $50 +$9 +17%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 179.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +31%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$18 +36%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$13 +26%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 +$8 +16%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $50 +$19 +38%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $50 +$14 +27%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$21 +42%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 +$20 +40%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 +$9 +17%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $50 +$10 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $50 +$8 +16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 +$19 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $50 +$12 +23%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $50 +$7 +13%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 2h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Iraq 80¢ $50 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 74¢ $50 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 80¢ $50 4h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 71¢ $50 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 76¢ $50 17h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 75¢ $50 20h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $50 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 21h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 22h
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 22h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 22h
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $50 22h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $50 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 81¢ $30 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 81¢ $8 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 81¢ $6 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $50 22h
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato BUY Maximo Zeitune 73¢ $50 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $50 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 22h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $50 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 79¢ $6 22h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 77¢ $42 22h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 78¢ $9 22h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $50 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $615.80 · official $615.80 (match) · 174 history records