Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
75 0x75b0…3c40 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$162 · open +$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$125
14 days+$125
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$126
sports 28% +$157
crypto 1% −$6
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.0% +13.1% 100% 100% +13.1%
≤30d 7 -16.0% -24.0% 57% 57% +11.4%
≤90d 7 -16.0% -24.0% 57% 57% +11.4%
all 7 -16.0% -24.0% 57% 57% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 57% +11.4%
10% -31.3% 29% +0.7%
15% -37.9% 0% -9.0%
20% -44.0% 0% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$2 · ×13.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.33 per $1 lost it wins $18.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$157
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage29d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 100¢ $200 $357 +$157 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$125 +25%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -91%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? May 21 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.96 · official $356.96 (match) · 14 history records