Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
75 0x75b0…2f9f other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized +$22 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$16
world 33% −$32
sports 11% +$65
crypto 9% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +31.5% +19.0% 62% 62% +16.9%
≤30d 8 +31.5% +19.0% 62% 62% +16.9%
≤90d 8 +31.5% +19.0% 62% 62% +16.9%
all 8 +31.5% +19.0% 62% 62% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 62% +16.9%
10% +7.6% 50% +5.7%
15% -2.8% 50% -4.5%
20% -12.3% 38% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$26 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $176 $144 −$32 (-18%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+6%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$76 +378%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $88 +$36 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$35 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $66 15m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $43 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $88 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.15 · official $239.15 (match) · 20 history records