Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
75 0x75af…3f8d sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-9%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$139
other 5% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.5% -21.8% 60% 60% -51.4%
≤30d 5 -13.5% -21.8% 60% 60% -51.4%
≤90d 5 -13.5% -21.8% 60% 60% -51.4%
all 5 -13.5% -21.8% 60% 60% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 60% -51.4%
10% -29.3% 40% -56.0%
15% -36.1% 40% -60.3%
20% -42.4% 20% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$86 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $93 −$91 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $61 +$27 +45%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$11 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $28 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $93 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $28 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $81 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $61 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.88 · official $27.88 (match) · 10 history records