Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
75 0x75af…c08a politics 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$1
other 31% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
world 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage106d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $120 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $120 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $121 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $121 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $121 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 25 $121 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $121 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $121 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $122 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $119 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $119 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $119 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $119 13d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $119 20d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $120 20d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $120 27d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $120 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $120 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $120 30d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $120 34d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $120 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $120 37d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $121 61d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $121 61d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 66d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 67d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $121 75d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $121 76d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $121 79d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 79d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $121 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $121 85d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $121 89d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $121 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $121 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $121 95d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $121 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records