Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

75 0x75ad…ff74 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$11,574 (+171%) realized +$11,657 · open −$83

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +609% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +516% what you keep after slip

Net edge+516%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$677per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$36est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$4,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 187d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+541.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+950.0%	+850.0%	50%	50%	+490.5%
≤90d	3	+608.6%	+541.1%	33%	33%	+456.0%
all	3	+608.6%	+541.1%	33%	33%	+456.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+541.1%	33%	+456.0%
10%	+479.8%	33%	+402.8%
15%	+423.7%	33%	+354.3%
20%	+372.4%	33%	+309.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +700% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +609% · $-wt +700% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$12,642 vs −$569 · ×22.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×11.1 per $1 lost it wins $11.1

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage

Net worth$4,729

Realized+$11,657

Unrealized−$83

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$36

Open positions7

Markets (closed)3 / 10

History coverage187d

Avg bet$677

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$1,200	$1,058	−$142 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$680	$891	+$211 (+31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$700	$675	−$25 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	13¢	$500	$647	+$147 (+29%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	Yes	63¢	52¢	$732	$607	−$125 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$700	$601	−$99 (-14%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$300	$250	−$50 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$1,064	−$1,064	-100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$480	+$12,642	+2634%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Apr 03	$100	−$74	-74%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	BUY Yes	57¢	$94	35m
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	BUY Yes	61¢	$97	1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	BUY Yes	58¢	$105	2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$100	2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	BUY Yes	57¢	$79	2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	BUY Yes	68¢	$105	3h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	BUY Yes	78¢	$105	3h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	BUY Yes	76¢	$84	3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$107	6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$107	6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$107	16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$107	39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$214	40h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$321	2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$107	2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$107	2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$107	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$213	5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$107	7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1,065	7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$535	8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$534	8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	19¢	$1,064	9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$86	21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$107	26d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$107	27d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$321	27d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	2¢	$50	59d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	3¢	$50	60d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	4¢	$90	67d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,728.84 · official $4,733.00 (match) · 64 history records