Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75ac…33d7 politics 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$83,151 (+317%) realized +$1,351 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate59%163W / 112L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$506
14 days+$631
30 days+$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$969
politics 29% +$84
finance 3% +$120
other 2% −$17
sports 2% −$11
tech 2% +$95
economics 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +10.8% +0.2% 62% 37% -4.2%
≤30d 171 +11.8% +1.2% 60% 38% -4.5%
≤90d 275 +11.8% +1.2% 59% 42% -4.5%
all 275 +11.8% +1.2% 59% 42% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 42% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.5% 29% -13.7%
15% -17.3% 19% -22.0%
20% -25.4% 13% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized+$1,351
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses163 / 112
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions30
Markets (closed)275 / 303
History coverage46d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 31¢ 34¢ $95 $104 +$10 (+10%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? No 27¢ 20¢ $137 $100 −$37 (-27%)
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $93 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $55 $88 +$33 (+61%)
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? No 25¢ 24¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $55 $58 +$2 (+5%)
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? No 35¢ 20¢ $82 $48 −$34 (-41%)
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $56 $42 −$14 (-25%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $40 $33 −$8 (-19%)
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? No 28¢ 24¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-17%)
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $37 $22 −$15 (-41%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? Yes 61¢ 74¢ $17 $20 +$4 (+21%)
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? No 25¢ 30¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? No 24¢ 26¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 36¢ 84¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+135%)
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 11¢ 40¢ $2 $9 +$6 (+268%)
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Yes 61¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Yes 19¢ 35¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $48 +$9 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $135 +$9 +7%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $195 −$70 -36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $349 −$66 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $142 −$14 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $133 +$14 +11%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $266 −$14 -5%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $29 +$14 +46%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $472 +$31 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $72 −$54 -75%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $101 −$42 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $76 +$2 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $288 +$64 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $174 −$6 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $402 +$10 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $104 +$10 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $427 −$58 -14%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 14 $32 +$4 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $72 −$3 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $352 +$53 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 +$20 +41%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $266 +$56 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $100 −$12 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $144 −$16 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $120 −$32 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $88 −$36 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $112 +$8 +7%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 12, 2026 Jun 14 $22 −$16 -73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $83 −$4 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $447 +$16 +4%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $0 +$3 +669%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $102 +$24 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $225 +$33 +15%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $168 +$18 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $268 +$55 +20%
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$8 +136%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $608 +$245 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? SELL No 19¢ $42 0m
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? SELL No 19¢ $10 5m
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 6m
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? SELL No 19¢ $5 26m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 49m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 54m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 57m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $25 57m
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? SELL No 60¢ $2 1h
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? SELL No 27¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 0¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $90 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 2h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? SELL No 69¢ $10 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $18 2h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? SELL No 69¢ $15 2h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? SELL No 69¢ $25 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 37¢ $111 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.07 · official $860.14 (match) · 3500 history records