Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75ab…ad3d crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$22
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$42
sports 7% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 48% -14.1%
≤30d 32 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 44% -18.7%
≤90d 32 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 44% -18.7%
all 32 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 44% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 44% -18.7%
10% -27.3% 34% -26.5%
15% -34.3% 34% -33.6%
20% -40.7% 28% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage10d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$19 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $16 +$16 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$35 +130%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $22 +$29 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$12 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $18 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $34 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $40 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $27 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $63 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $27 36h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $26 36h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 61¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records