Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

75 0x75a9…002b sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$66 (+45%) realized +$65 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip

Net edge+39%after slip

Net WR72%break-even

Win rate78%14W / 4L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +72%

net ROI/market (all)+45.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+60.4%	+45.1%	78%	72%	+36.2%
≤30d	18	+60.4%	+45.1%	78%	72%	+36.2%
≤90d	18	+60.4%	+45.1%	78%	72%	+36.2%
all	18	+60.4%	+45.1%	78%	72%	+36.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+45.1%	72%	+36.2%
10%	+31.2%	72%	+23.1%
15%	+18.5%	72%	+11.2%
20%	+6.9%	67%	+0.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 28% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +99% → late +22% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized+$65

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses14 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage4d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	52¢	94¢	$8	$15	+$7 (+82%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	No	53¢	0¢	$11	$0	−$11 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$13	−$13	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$10	+$14	+140%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$7	+$6	+83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$10	+$13	+129%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$10	+$11	+109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$10	+$14	+140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$9	+$9	+109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$9	+$10	+114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$3	+$6	+250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$8	+$5	+67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$4	+$6	+149%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$4	+$3	+82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$3	+$1	+42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$2	+$1	+73%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 10	$4	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	53¢	$11	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$8	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$10	12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$13	12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	41¢	$10	12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$7	26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	47¢	$10	27h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$10	27h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$2	37h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	54¢	$10	37h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$9	37h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$9	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$9	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$8	2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$3	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$4	2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$4	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$4	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$3	4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner	SELL Leo Team	77¢	$3	4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$2	4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner	SELL Leo Team	17¢	$1	4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner	BUY Leo Team	42¢	$4	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.55 · official $14.55 (match) · 39 history records