Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75a7…2d61 sports 601 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,494 (-3%) realized −$6,660 · open +$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%203W / 397L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$3,078est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,519
7 days−$7,417
14 days−$26,457
30 days−$7,931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$6,551
other 3% −$2,515
crypto 1% −$112
world 0% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -28.4% -35.2% 29% 29% -28.9%
≤30d 368 -11.1% -19.5% 35% 35% -15.4%
≤90d 374 -11.8% -20.2% 35% 34% -16.4%
all 600 -10.8% -19.3% 34% 33% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 33% -14.3%
10% -27.0% 32% -22.5%
15% -34.1% 30% -30.0%
20% -40.5% 28% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +25% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$461 vs −$260 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$6,660
Unrealized+$166
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses203 / 397
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,078
Open positions1
Markets (closed)600 / 601
History coverage108d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 32¢ 60¢ $184 $350 +$166 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $108 −$79 -73%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $93 −$91 -97%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $216 −$210 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $306 +$187 +61%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $203 +$104 +51%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $332 +$689 +208%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $360 −$353 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 16 $286 +$37 +13%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $478 +$438 +92%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $269 −$269 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 16 $314 −$314 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $147 −$147 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $334 −$334 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $224 −$224 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 16 $297 −$39 -13%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 16 $347 −$154 -44%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 16 $661 −$180 -27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $255 −$255 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $301 −$301 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $271 −$271 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $205 −$76 -37%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $156 −$156 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $296 −$79 -27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $280 −$280 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 16 $242 −$242 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $559 −$559 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 16 $314 −$314 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 16 $108 +$81 +75%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 16 $225 −$225 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $935 −$211 -23%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 16 $293 −$293 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $256 −$256 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 46¢ $264 14m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 31¢ $70 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 32¢ $102 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 32¢ $204 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $108 1h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 9¢ $93 7h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 19¢ $205 7h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 18¢ $11 8h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 56¢ $493 8h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $123 8h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 63¢ $184 9h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 47¢ $203 9h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 34¢ $306 9h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 99¢ $520 10h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 70¢ $350 10h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 45¢ $151 11h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 24¢ $205 11h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 24¢ $332 11h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 37¢ $360 20h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 14¢ $52 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $357 22h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 14¢ $104 22h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 22¢ $216 22h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $216 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $337 24h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $255 25h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 99¢ $915 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 26h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 54¢ $506 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.26 · official $350.26 (match) · 1728 history records