Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75a5…7ee3 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-10%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$3
crypto 11% −$12
tech 3% −$1
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 24% -15.9%
≤30d 25 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 24% -15.9%
≤90d 25 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 24% -15.9%
all 25 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 24% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 24% -15.9%
10% -53.8% 16% -24.0%
15% -58.3% 12% -31.3%
20% -62.4% 12% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No 44¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 +$2 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $44 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.25 · official $4.25 (match) · 49 history records