Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x75a4…3d29 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$337 (+33%) realized +$89 · open +$248
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$695
other 23% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.4% +17.1% 67% 67% +42.0%
≤30d 6 +29.4% +17.1% 67% 67% +42.0%
≤90d 6 +29.4% +17.1% 67% 67% +42.0%
all 6 +29.4% +17.1% 67% 67% +42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 67% +42.0%
10% +5.9% 67% +28.4%
15% -4.3% 50% +16.0%
20% -13.7% 50% +4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$53 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$248
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Curaçao 35¢ 66¢ $300 $570 +$270 (+90%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 66¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 +$210 +206%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $70 +$17 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $30 +$24 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 35¢ $306 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $304 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $102 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $102 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $70 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 55¢ $30 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $648.24 · official $648.24 (match) · 12 history records