trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? | Jun 09 | $72 | +$18 | +25% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $5,919 | +$2,581 | +44% |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? | Jun 09 | $493 | +$163 | +33% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | Jun 09 | $522 | +$1,028 | +197% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $538 | +$236 | +44% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1,774 | +$2,509 | +141% |
| Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? | Jun 07 | $103 | +$18 | +17% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | Jun 07 | $414 | −$410 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET | Jun 02 | $105 | −$100 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | Jun 02 | $102 | +$30 | +29% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET | Jun 02 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | May 28 | $1,761 | +$312 | +18% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +50.3% | +35.9% | 88% | 88% | +47.0% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +20.8% | +9.3% | 75% | 75% | +39.4% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +20.8% | +9.3% | 75% | 75% | +39.4% |
| all | 12 | +20.8% | +9.3% | 75% | 75% | +39.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +9.3% | 75% | +39.4% |
| 10% | -1.2% | 58% | +26.0% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -10.7% | 33% | +13.9% |
| 20% | -19.5% | 17% | +2.7% |