Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
75 0x759f…6f6d world 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 58L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$34
sports 28% +$8
other 15% +$38
economics 8% $0
politics 3% +$3
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.8% -11.2% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 44 +4.4% -5.6% 34% 2% -9.7%
all 100 +4.5% -5.4% 42% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 5% -9.5%
10% -14.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -22.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -30.3% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage453d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 44¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $213 +$3 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $93 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $26 −$4 -15%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $53 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $666 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $15 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $166 +$8 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $57 −$3 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $136 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $207 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $68 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $76 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $74 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $146 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $72 −$6 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $72 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $126 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $95 −$25 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $106 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $79 +$2 +3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $869 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $966 +$2 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $966 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $967 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1,060 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $962 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $1,059 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $7 −$3 -49%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $1 $0 -17%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $4 $0 +12%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $68 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $68 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $67 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $67 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $63 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $68 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $68 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $74 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $74 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $71 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $71 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $70 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $70 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $70 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.88 · official $68.97 (match) · 392 history records