Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x759d…c13e crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$3
crypto 27% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.2% -37.8% 36% 36% -15.8%
≤30d 14 -31.2% -37.8% 36% 36% -15.8%
≤90d 14 -31.2% -37.8% 36% 36% -15.8%
all 14 -31.2% -37.8% 36% 36% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 36% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 36% -23.8%
15% -49.2% 29% -31.2%
20% -54.1% 14% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $223 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $220 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $223 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records