Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x759b…7273 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$8 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$21
other 34% −$53
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 52% -12.9%
≤30d 44 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 52% -12.9%
≤90d 44 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 52% -12.9%
all 44 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 52% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 52% -12.9%
10% -9.0% 50% -21.2%
15% -17.8% 48% -28.8%
20% -25.9% 36% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 62¢ 92¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+48%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 28¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+39%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 28¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $8 +$4 +44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$7 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 +$8 +42%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 −$20 -87%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +255%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$10 +67%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $8 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 62¢ $12 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $8 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $15 10h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $22 10h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 18h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $20 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $7 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $7 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $18 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $15 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.55 · official $89.55 (match) · 82 history records