Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x7597…a3d7 sports 23 markets active 3d ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$102 (-6%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$41
other 13% −$5
politics 12% +$31
crypto 6% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 57% -13.4%
≤30d 7 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 57% -13.4%
≤90d 7 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 57% -13.4%
all 22 +5.8% -4.3% 59% 59% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 59% -16.1%
10% -13.4% 45% -24.1%
15% -21.8% 23% -31.4%
20% -29.5% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$46 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage621d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $168 −$109 -65%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $129 +$39 +31%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 −$77 -38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $186 +$20 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $154 +$42 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$54 +55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Oct 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Oct 15 $18 +$14 +74%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 15 $15 +$3 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 15 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 20 $111 −$15 -13%
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? Jan 01 $94 +$17 +18%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $48 +$47 +97%
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 05 $72 −$72 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 03 $24 +$48 +203%
Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? Nov 02 $25 −$1 -5%
Ankalaev vs. Rakic Oct 28 $19 +$5 +28%
Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals? Oct 26 $14 +$5 +39%
Will the New York Yankees win the American League? Oct 20 $12 +$2 +18%
Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? Oct 15 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND United BUY 43¢ $58 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $59 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $168 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $129 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $125 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $186 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $196 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $154 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $99 4d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) BUY G2 Esports 39¢ $32 249d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) SELL Anyones Legend 99¢ $32 249d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) BUY Anyones Legend 57¢ $18 249d
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) SELL T1 100¢ $18 249d
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) BUY T1 81¢ $15 249d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) BUY T1 79¢ $12 250d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 55¢ $96 517d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 66¢ $96 517d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 76¢ $111 536d
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $111 536d
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? BUY No 85¢ $47 588d
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? BUY No 85¢ $26 588d
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? BUY No 85¢ $21 588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $94 592d
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 595d
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 595d
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 595d
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 595d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 596d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records