Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x7595…50ff sports 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$293 (+0%) realized −$525 · open +$818
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%86W / 84L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,075per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$957est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$5,836
other 15% +$3,343
crypto 2% +$1,028
finance 1% −$1,345
economics 1% −$1,000
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.8% -38.3% 25% 25% -21.9%
≤30d 29 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 38% +9.8%
≤90d 74 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 47% -3.9%
all 170 +11.8% +1.1% 51% 49% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 49% -6.1%
10% -8.6% 47% -15.1%
15% -17.4% 41% -23.3%
20% -25.5% 33% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,532) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$928 vs −$866 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$2,099
Realized−$525
Unrealized+$818
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses86 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$957
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 175
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,075
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 100¢ $1,281 $2,099 +$818 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10,159 +$4,796 +47%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $411 −$305 -74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,944 −$4,864 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,037 −$409 -10%
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Jun 21 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,062 +$938 +31%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2,034 −$65 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,027 −$980 -95%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $513 −$44 -9%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,171 −$1,453 -67%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $113 +$74 +66%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,041 +$4,171 +204%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,110 −$2,110 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,830 −$1,830 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,749 −$1,749 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,990 +$2,010 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,960 +$2,040 +104%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,024 +$3,674 +359%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $962 −$654 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,275 +$4,725 +90%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 12 $580 −$580 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,021 +$1,123 +110%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5,081 +$5,118 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,601 +$2,849 +110%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $337 +$663 +197%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $577 +$423 +73%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 Apr 28 $510 +$475 +93%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $630 +$358 +57%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5 Apr 27 $108 −$108 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 27 $610 −$610 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5 Apr 26 $104 +$93 +90%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 26 $96 +$101 +105%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5 Apr 25 $98 +$101 +103%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $112 +$85 +76%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 Apr 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5 Apr 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Apr 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $136 +$62 +46%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $292 +$105 +36%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $390 −$390 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $408 +$186 +46%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 14 $389 −$389 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 14 $301 +$397 +132%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 11 $300 +$97 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $1,296 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $6,854 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $106 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $80 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $411 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $3,762 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $6,271 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $4,944 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $914 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $876 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $1,838 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $4,037 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $3,062 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $1,968 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $47 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 11¢ $469 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2,034 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 4d
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,023 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $717 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Tü BUY 9¢ $514 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 32¢ $2,041 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $61 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $52 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2,150 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1,830 6d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2,110 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,098.95 · official $2,098.95 (match) · 606 history records