Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7594…1f03 crypto 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 390d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,529 (-8%) realized −$1,588 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%121W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$389
7 days−$389
14 days−$389
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$975
sports 28% −$1,368
other 12% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -46.3% -51.4% 26% 26% -33.6%
≤30d 31 -46.3% -51.4% 26% 26% -33.6%
≤90d 150 -40.6% -46.2% 25% 25% -26.0%
all 479 -24.5% -31.7% 25% 25% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 25% -21.5%
10% -38.2% 25% -29.0%
15% -44.2% 24% -35.9%
20% -49.7% 23% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$31 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$1,588
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses121 / 358
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)479 / 482
History coverage390d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 17¢ 52¢ $68 $208 +$140 (+206%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 23¢ 28¢ $46 $55 +$9 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $91 $1 −$90 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 258 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $108 +$118 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$53 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $112 −$27 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$62 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$54 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $111 −$25 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$52 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$18 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$23 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$15 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$57 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$36 -94%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$81 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$37 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 10 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 10 $134 −$90 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 10 $29 −$27 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 10 $53 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 10 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 10 $42 +$72 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 10 $54 −$51 -95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group May 10 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 10 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 10 $69 +$58 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 10 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $96 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $97 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $43 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $39 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $22 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $28 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $41 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $75 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $74 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $52 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $39 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $48 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $73 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $60 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $28 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $43 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $29 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $77 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $53 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $84 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $23 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $42 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.29 · official $260.29 · 1113 history records