Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7592…f661 sports 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 421d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,573 (-7%) realized −$6,573 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%96W / 116L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$894
7 days+$1,175
14 days+$1,175
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$6,563
other 10% +$523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +56.7% +41.7% 62% 62% +21.3%
≤30d 19 +31.9% +19.4% 53% 53% -1.6%
≤90d 129 -27.8% -34.7% 32% 29% -43.3%
all 212 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 41% -15.2%
10% -16.8% 35% -23.3%
15% -24.8% 30% -30.7%
20% -32.2% 24% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$274 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

421d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses96 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage421d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 18 $69 +$390 +562%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $179 +$196 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $496 +$303 +61%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $62 +$96 +156%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $88 +$112 +127%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $118 +$262 +222%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $252 +$148 +59%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $255 −$252 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $378 −$378 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $301 +$151 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $294 +$141 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $458 +$511 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $400 −$400 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $12 −$12 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $390 −$390 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5) May 17 $380 +$66 +18%
Magic vs. 76ers May 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) May 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones May 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators May 17 $694 −$157 -23%
76ers vs. Celtics May 17 $348 −$4 -1%
Magic vs. Pistons May 17 $309 −$309 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) May 17 $347 −$347 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 17 $353 −$353 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $249 −$249 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 17 $347 −$347 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $597 +$261 +44%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Apr 23 $5 +$48 +902%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Apr 21 $139 +$104 +74%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 21 $297 +$52 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 20 $314 +$137 +44%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Apr 19 $280 +$165 +59%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Apr 19 $45 +$8 +18%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $300 +$137 +46%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $153 +$223 +145%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-5.5) Mar 30 $204 +$194 +95%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $226 +$90 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jonathan David: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $126 3m
Jonathan David: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $333 4m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $375 8m
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $46 1h
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $179 1h
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $12 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $799 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $496 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $4 19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $13 19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $5 19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $70 19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $3 19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $3 19h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $56 19h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 40¢ $158 26h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $189 27h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $11 27h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $13 27h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $75 28h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $62 28h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $380 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $131 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $269 2d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $118 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1934 history records