Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
75 0x7590…0161 sports 52 markets active 1d ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$36 (+4%) realized +$34 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate76%38W / 12L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$17
14 days+$15
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$13
world 19% +$16
other 6% +$3
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +43.9% +30.2% 86% 43% -1.0%
≤30d 29 +19.7% +8.3% 79% 48% -6.9%
≤90d 50 +12.3% +1.6% 76% 40% -6.4%
all 50 +12.3% +1.6% 76% 40% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 40% -6.4%
10% -8.1% 28% -15.4%
15% -17.0% 18% -23.5%
20% -25.1% 10% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses38 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage61d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $92 −$4 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$6 +208%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $19 +$9 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $25 +$1 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $5 +$1 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $39 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $32 +$1 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $50 −$21 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$6 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $10 +$3 +31%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $36 −$6 -16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10 +$3 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 +$4 +41%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 26 $46 −$6 -13%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $25 +$5 +19%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$1 +36%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $2 +$1 +46%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 20 $45 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $37 +$11 +31%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 18 $30 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? May 04 $30 +$1 +2%
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United Apr 23 $1 −$1 -59%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 23 $1 +$3 +251%
Pakistan Super League: Karachi Kings vs Peshawar Zalmi Apr 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Quetta Gladiators Apr 22 $15 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 21 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +6%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 19 $41 +$1 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 17 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +3%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Quetta Gladiators Apr 16 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 30h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 82¢ $27 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 61¢ $27 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 94¢ $50 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 80¢ $5 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 44¢ $14 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 24¢ $5 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 31¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $4 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 41¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $3 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 89¢ $11 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 84¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 97¢ $21 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 67¢ $19 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 28¢ $7 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 19¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $20 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 3¢ $0 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $25 7d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 79¢ $5 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY No 98¢ $39 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 97¢ $32 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 56¢ $29 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 95¢ $50 14d
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 15d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 97¢ $5 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 76¢ $10 17d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 99¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.30 · official $22.30 (match) · 130 history records