Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x758f…7fd1 crypto 478 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$387 (-4%) realized −$414 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate81%385W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$305
other 3% +$28
weather 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 14% -6.7%
≤30d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 14% -6.7%
≤90d 317 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 8% -12.1%
all 477 +1.6% -8.1% 81% 18% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 18% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 12% -21.3%
15% -24.9% 8% -28.9%
20% -32.3% 5% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$414
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses385 / 92
Open positions1
Markets (closed)477 / 478
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $200 $227 +$27 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 06 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 06 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 06 $273 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 06 $276 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7PM ET May 05 $274 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 05 $268 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 05 $268 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 05 $265 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 05 $263 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 04 $256 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2PM ET May 04 $256 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 04 $256 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 04 $256 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 04 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 04 $253 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7PM ET May 04 $254 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 03 $253 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6PM ET May 03 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 03 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $247 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5PM ET May 02 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 01 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2PM ET May 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1PM ET May 01 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 01 $149 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10AM ET May 01 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 01 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $98 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $51 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $188 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $280 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $28 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $273 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $276 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $276 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $29 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.06 · official $227.06 (match) · 3500 history records