Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x758c…c901 weather 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$79 (+0%) realized +$78 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%148W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$10
14 days+$17
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$75
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 41 -2.3% -11.6% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 154 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -9.4%
all 154 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×133.9 per $1 lost it wins $133.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses148 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage66d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $388 $390 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $601 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1,333 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $423 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,310 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $668 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,328 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,324 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,296 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1,234 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $247 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,321 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1,320 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $601 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 05 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1,328 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? Jun 01 $774 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29? Jun 01 $455 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 29? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28? May 29 $250 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $148 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 27? May 28 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 22? May 26 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 22? May 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? May 26 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 22? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25? May 26 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21? May 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21? May 22 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21? May 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 16? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? May 21 $335 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16? May 21 $311 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? May 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15? May 18 $1,896 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? May 17 $677 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15? May 15 $299 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 14? May 15 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $459 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $284 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $158 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $383 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $312 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $173 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $549 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $98 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $203 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $469 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $345 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.55 · official $394.55 (match) · 1197 history records