Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x758c…8819 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$2
other 27% −$5
sports 18% −$2
culture 9% −$1
economics 3% −$2
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 1 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 2 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.4%
all 73 -9.2% -17.8% 12% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 1% -9.7%
10% -25.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -32.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage379d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $73 $70 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $89 +$2 +3%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $1 $0 -10%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $1 $0 -40%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $86 +$1 +2%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $1 $0 -50%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $7 −$2 -31%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $280 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $91 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $92 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -32%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $65 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $1 $0 -27%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $280 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 06 $94 $0 -0%
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins? Nov 04 $94 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $1 $0 +10%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 08 $187 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 04 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 03 $286 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $74 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $92 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $89 24d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 48d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 119d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 122d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 122d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 122d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 123d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 123d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 126d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 126d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 126d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $87 133d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 149d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $86 151d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 152d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 152d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $83 152d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 152d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 152d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY No 0¢ $1 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 153d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 153d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $85 154d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 154d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.32 · official $70.32 (match) · 339 history records