Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7587…10d9 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-16%) realized −$15 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$23
other 8% −$1
world 6% −$1
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 43% -32.5%
≤30d 37 -25.3% -32.4% 32% 24% -27.6%
≤90d 39 -29.1% -35.9% 31% 23% -29.4%
all 39 -29.1% -35.9% 31% 23% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 23% -29.4%
10% -42.0% 18% -36.2%
15% -47.6% 18% -42.3%
20% -52.7% 15% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)39 / 48
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 56¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $1 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$5 -74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -91%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$1 -33%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$1 -41%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $1 −$1 -70%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 +$9 +298%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $1 −$1 -54%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Ser Jun 06 $1 $0 -23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 06 $1 $0 +38%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 202 Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of March 20 Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 31? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 20 Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 34h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 34h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 34h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $8 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series SELL Oxuji Esports 14¢ $0 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL TYLOO $0 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 27¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Oxuji Esports 28¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 90¢ $9 8d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY GamerLegion 30¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest $2 8d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FlyQuest $1 8d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest $1 8d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest $1 8d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 30¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL M80 $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.98 · official $17.98 (match) · 99 history records